Climate Change, GIS and VBD Stratification/ Mapping

Ongoing Projects

• Development and validation of dengue risk map of India using remote sensing and geographical
  information system.

• Mapping and risk assessment on KFD expansion in Western Ghats, India.

• Disease burden estimation and projection: Malaria mapping in India.

• Mobile Mosquitoes - understanding the entangled mobilities of humans and Aedes mosquitoes in Mexico, Tanzania, India and Germany.

• Developed Geo-Environmental Risk Model (GERM) for creation LF transmission risk map of India. To help the strategy of the global program to interrupt transmission of lymphatic filariasis (LF) using mass drug administration (MDA). The GERM developed on geographic information system (GIS) platform for LF spatial delimitation and a national LF elimination program to identify the areas at risk for intervention and for undertaking surveillance in no-risk areas.
• Environmental determinants that influence the occurrence of JE have been identified, and based on that, a conceptual frame for Japanese encephalitis (JE) transmission was developed. The concept of endemic and epidemic has been defined using cluster analysis on JE occurrences in 175 districts over a period of 53 years in India. The endemic and epidemic districts are identified for regular monitoring of vector population and viral activity and implementing appropriate integrated methods of vector control that are likely to reduce the transmission, besides the selective immunization of children.
• Forecasted Japanese Encephalitis Vector Abundance in Paddy Growing Area, with the Aid of Radar Satellite Images: JE Vector mosquitoes breed mostly in rice fields, and human cases occur scattered over extended rural rice-growing areas. This ecological connection with the irrigation facilities and paddy cultivation, found that, at a particular stage of paddy growth was a premonitory sign that lead to a markedly increased population of the vector mosquitoes. A significant positive correlation was observed between r0 (Satellite image analysis values) and paddy growth stages (r = 0.87, p < 0.05) and adult vector density (r = 0.74, p = 0.04). The r0 value observed during the vegetative and flowering stages of paddy growth ranged from -17.6 to -17.16, at which period the vector density started building up. This is the spectral signature that denotes the ‘‘risk,’’ following which a high vector abundance is expected during heading stage of the paddy.
• Providing real time Spatial and temporal dengue case distribution maps to Pondicherry Health authorities and local NVBDCP for the last 5 years to take timely action and identify the hotspots.
• Engaging in capacity building and the identification of new research initiatives as part of the ICMR Capacity Building for Disease Estimation and GBD initiative.
• Future Plan: VBD transmission and dissemination are already being impacted by climate change, and these consequences are only going to get worse. This Division is already engaged in the identification of the primary climate change-related factors that affect VBDs and involved in the development of forecasting and risk models for VBDs. Further,the division is strengthening these efforts with state- of-the-art tools and technologies for a deeper comprehension and appropriate model development. Finally, this will enable health officials to draw boundaries and implement the appropriate control measures.